Friday, November 18, 2011

People see the harm in what excessive candor can do


We all tend to carry in our heads a list of greatest movies. Almost everyone loves Citizen Kane, The Godfather, Casablanca, etc. Then there are movies that are more private treasures, ones which hit us where we live. We feel a little more possessive of them. We feel like we get these movies more than others do. Maybe that's a little snobby, and maybe that's OK.

A long way to begin a discussion of a movie that hits me pretty close: Whit Stillman's Metropolis. This is a tiny little film which came out in about 1990. In one sense I should not particularly be expected to identify with it. The story revolves around a core group of characters enjoying life as emerging members of New York high society. One earnest character resents the terms yuppie and preppie and in their place coins the term Urban Haute Bourgeoisie, UHB, pronounced "ubb." The time period is deliberately left a little ambiguous. The title cards announce that it's "Not So Long Ago." As the movie was shot on a tiny budget, Stillman took New York as he found it in the late 1980s. So the cars and clothes are from that era. But there are several cues indicating that the intended time is perhaps the late 1960s or early 1970s, when the old social order was rapidly crumbling. This leads to a running theme that the characters have an assumption of impending doom. They know that the system which served to ensure their life's path may no longer do so. It got them into Ivy League colleges (the movie takes place over Christmas break when they all return home to Manhattan). It was the era when the Ivies had a much larger proportion of gentleman's C-earning legacies than today. The system was then supposed to provide the men with jobs in prestigious law or finance firms, and the women with husbands in those firms, perhaps with positions running charity or arts organizations. But that is all ending in Metropolitan. The debutante balls are still going on, but have lost some of their import. They are an anachronism by this point--a woman attending college in 1970 is hardly in need of a social debut.

Stillman seems to blame the collapse of the family unit for the impending failure of the UHB youth. Several characters have divorced parents, and the splitting of households is shown to be a substantial financial setback. Nick Smith, the character played by Christopher Eigeman, is Stillman's alter ego, or at least the alter ego of Stillman's sardonic side. Nick articulates and defends the virtues of the class he belongs to. He loves the deb parties and the fine clothes. His fondest wish is that it would all continue, that the 20 year olds would become their parents. "I like everyone's parents," he says at one point.

One of the things I like so much about this movie is that it contains both cynical and earnest characters (Nick is both), and the cynical ones are not always given the advantage. They aren't privileged as clear-thinking realists. The earnest ones are given their due, and frequently have the better of the argument. The acting here meshes beautifully with the earnestness. The actors are in the main amateurs. Because the characters are also generally pretending to a greater degree of sophistication than they actually possess, the amateurishness works quite well. The dialogue feels mannered and rehearsed, as if the characters have been working on ideas and turns of phrases, waiting to unleash them whole in conversation. That is in fact how many collegians talk. What is charming is that the better characters (Audrey Rouget, Charlie Black) take their ideas very seriously. When avowed socialist Tom Townsend rationalizes his sudden incorporation into the elitist deb party culture, Charlie does not accept the inconsistency. "It's... it's untenable!" he sputters, and he believes with all his heart that showing that a behavior is untenable ought to be enough. We know that later in life, and not much later, he will tend to accept hypocrisy and compromise as necessary for getting through a life, but he doesn't yet.

Metropolitan also foresaw the Jane Austen boom. The plot is very loosely adapted from Mansfield Park. Tom Townsend and Audrey Rouget also discuss that book, a dialogue Stillman uses as commentary on the era. Mansfield Park features an exceptionally old-fashioned plot, in which young people left to their own devices, throw off the old morality by putting on a play. This is seen by the culture of the time as a gross moral lapse, a position taken by the book itself. Tom finds that ridiculous and believes Mansfield Park to be a bad book (he amusingly declares that he has not read it, but has read criticism of it, doubling his reading efficiency). Audrey defends the book and its idea of a virtuous heroine, a notion decidedly out of fashion in most 20th century literary fiction. The Mansfield Park play is given a parallel later in the movie, as despite Audrey's misgivings, the gang plays a truth game, in which the players must tell each other the absolute truth in response to any question. Cynthia, the shallowest character, does not see how truth can be bad, but Audrey knows otherwise.

I don't necessarily buy into all of Stillman's moral conclusions, but I appreciate that he's making arguments that very few filmmakers are even considering.

Stillman made two other movies, Barcelona and The Last Days of Disco, about characters like these at slightly later points in their lives. Both are also excellent. After more than a decade, he is due to release his fourth movie, Damsels In Distress, later this year.

Thursday, September 8, 2011

Solar energy and the knowledge problem

Is it a key problem of the modern age that nobody can even have a reliable surface knowledge of more than a couple important issues, yet must have opinions on hundreds? This thought occurred to me as I attended a solar energy congress in Germany last week, then read a few columns from mainstream media pundits giving the usual talking points stating that solar is a hilarious boondoggle and always will be. People pick up a few points like these which serve to discredit an entire field of human endeavor. In the case of solar power, the main brickbat thrown is the true and obvious fact that the sun does not shine all the time, has variable input when it does shine, and is occasionally obscured by clouds. This fact is extrapolated to the conclusion that solar is useless. Similarly the cost argument is given--solar at this point is not as cheap as coal or natural gas in terms of providing a kilowatt-hour of electricity. Solar still relies on subsidies and feed-in tariffs.

But the op-ed column level of knowledge and dismissal is extremely superficial. You go to one of these big meetings devoted to a single field like solar energy and you'll see 1000 very bright people, who have devoted their working lives to this subject, discussing all areas of the field. The discussions will be at a level of detail you can't possibly evaluate at more than a surface level unless you've got a lengthy background in that area too. A person with any level of humility might take that opportunity to assess the reliability of his assumptions about a lot of things, and the confidence with which those assumptions should be held.

I've often had that thought about climate science too of course. Would an average person, placed in the audience for a few days of technical talks at a scientific conference, realize that he probably shouldn't actually dismiss an entire field of study with a few choice quotes from a Mark Steyn column? That these many, many very smart people, doing the work in which they've invested thousands of hours of work, might collectively know something? I don't know, maybe not. Political tribalism is so engrained that it encompasses many things that are far afield of political ideology per se. It's very hard to see past those cultural markers of one's tribe.

Many people at the solar conference showed a Moore's Law-like reduction in the cost of solar photovoltaic panels over the years, showing an approach to cost parity with coal/gas-fired electricity. I don't know if or when that's actually coming, and I don't understand the ins and outs of the electrical grid and how it can accept intermittent power inputs. There were also some interesting reports on Concentrated Solar Power plants, a completely different process than photovoltaics. These plants focus large amounts of direct sunlight onto a small area, to boil water and drive a conventional steam turbine. This also presents the opportunity to smooth out the intermittancy of the solar input, by storing the energy in a high heat capacity/low volatility working fluid, such as molten salt. This scheme works best in dry tropical areas, since it requires direct (unshaded, unscattered) sunlight.

Anyway, I am very far from having the level of knowledge where I'd feel comfortable evaluating the place of solar in the world's future growing energy needs. Germany subsidizes it and is as a result by far the world leader in installed capacity. You travel around Germany and you see wind and solar installations all about. My hunch is that this will all pay off in the next fifty years. No magic bullet, but renewables can probably play a growing part in the future. The problem is that I must know more than 90% of the general population on this subject, I don't know enough to intelligently support or oppose a given policy option, and yet options will be chosen. If it's impossible for the general public to be well enough informed on this and many other issues, then the basis on which things will be decided will not be accurate knowledge. It will be something else.