Sunday, August 23, 2009

Thoughts on watching Oliver Perez struggle through 12 pitch at bats




Say you've got a choice between your leadoff hitter starting the game with a 12 pitch AB that ends in an out vs. a first pitch single. Which would you take? What's your over/under on the pitch number? I'm pretty sure I'd take 20, that's a fifth of the pitches the starter can throw. But of course 20 pitch at bats are an extreme rarity; 10 is more common but still noteworthy.

Anyway a big key to modern baseball is getting the other team's middle relievers into the game ASAP. Wonder if anyone's working on a measure to incorporate a hitter's "pitch absorption" into calculations of value. It's extremely context-sensitive obviously; if the starter is Randy Johnson in his prime, getting him out of the game is more important than if it's the Pirates' fifth starter.

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